Expected Returns

June 24, 2009

Intermediate Term Bearish for S & P and Dollar

Filed under: Uncategorized — expectedreturns @ 12:07 PM

Stocks look poised to correct further in the coming days and weeks. Since the high of 956 was printed 2 weeks ago, the S & P has steadily trended lower. Volume has declined, and insiders are selling at the fastest clip in 2 years. The rising trendline has been broken, and MACD is turning negative, confirming a trend change.

Stocks have come quite a way since the March 6th low without a meaningful correction. The 200 day MA has been cracked to the downside. It’s critical that the S & P recapture the 200 day MA in coming days, otherwise there’s a lot of downside potential. I expect a test of 850, and then 800.

Meanwhile, the dollar hasn’t been able to muster much of a rally. Sooner rather than later, 72 on the dollar index will be tested. After that and we’re in freefall mode.

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